Recent events have only added fuel to the fire. Last fall, the government leaked word that in the southeastern state of Chiapas, agents had found a cache of 500 grenades, along with machine guns, rifles and thousands of rounds, squirreled away on a ranch. The intended plan, according to authorities: a mobilization of rebel forces to overthrow the state government on the bicentennial ceremonies in September 2010.

Diego Osorno is a 29-year-old journalist for Mexican daily newspaper Milenio who also writes a blog that chronicles subversive elements of Mexico, from former drug traffickers to anarchists. “Without a doubt this is a very, very important moment for the guerrillas,” he said. “They’re going to take advantage of the mysticism of the year. Expect big propaganda displays.”

Even if it’s not from one of the big-name guerrilla groups, Mr. Osorno said he’ll be looking for signs of unrest in Mexico this year. And they might not be obvious until retrospect, he says.

Take the 1910 Mexican Revolution, for example. History books say it began on the Texas border just a month after Mexico celebrated the republic’s centenary. But hundreds of miles south in the capital, few seemed concerned that year about the distant insurrection led by Francisco I. Madero, a spiritualist who supposedly received the go-ahead for his rebellion from ghosts during a séance.

The real bloodshed didn’t break out until Mr. Madero was assassinated in 1913, leading to the rise of tumultuous figures like the sombrero-wearing Emiliano Zapata and Pancho Villa, a highway-bandit-turned-national-hero.

“It wasn’t until then [1913] that you realized what was going on was actually a revolution,” says Mr. Osorno.

from: online.wsj.com